Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases

Li Ming Quan

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13

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Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases

Li Ming Quan

Published in European Journal of Preventive Medicine (Volume 11, Issue 1)

Received: 31 January 2023 Accepted: 25 February 2023 Published: 9 March 2023

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Abstract

Grey theory is a kind of grey system theory founded by Professor Deng Jurong, a Chinese scholar in the eighties century. It is a new method to study the uncertainty problem with few data and poor information. In recent years, grey modeling forecasting method has been widely used in industry, agriculture, science and technology, economic and social development planning and analysis, hydrology, geology, breeding and natural disaster prediction and so on. The prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases is an important work in the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Therefore, the author of this paper studied the application of grey modeling theory in the prediction and prediction of epidemic trend. Objective: To introduce the grey modeling prediction theory into the prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases, and to provide a new prediction method of epidemic trend of infectious diseases. The methods are as follows: The GM(1.1) model was established with the grey system theory, and the grey modeling was carried out on the short and medium term confirmed cases and the wave time of the epidemic outbreak in China in 2021, and the simulation accuracy and precision were analyzed. Results: The average simulation accuracy of the established short-term prediction model reached 73.2% and the prediction accuracy reached 99.85%. The average accuracy of the simulation value of the model reached 97.67% and the prediction accuracy reached 97.33% for the time of wave occurrence in the epidemic. This paper also analyzes the reasons for the low simulation value and prediction accuracy of the grey model forecasting method for the medium and long term confirmed cases of the epidemic.

Published in	European Journal of Preventive Medicine (Volume 11, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13
Page(s)	11-15
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Gray Modeling, Infectious Disease, Fashion Trend, Forecast, Research

References

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[2]	Liu Sifeng Xie Naiming et al. Grey System Theory and Its Implications, Science Press, 2008.
[3]	Dang Yaoguo, Liu Sifeng, Wang Zhengxin, Lin Yi et al. Research on Decision Model of Grey Prediction, Science Press, 2009. 12.
[4]	YU Xu. Application of Grey correlation analysis Method in the layout of slope position shift monitoring points [J]. Water conservancy and hydropower letters, 2022 lancet (S1): 14-17 + 24. DOI: 10.15974/j.carol carroll nki SLSDKB. 2022. S1.004.
[5]	Wu Quan, Yang Yanmei, Fu Yu. Prediction of total urban water use in Guiyang based on grey system theory [J]. Journal of Nanchang Institute of Technology, 2022, 41 (01): 40-46.
[6]	Yu Guo, Li Haitao, Chen Yanru, Zhan Weiyun, Wang Chenyu, Zhang Dongming. Prediction of natural gas reserves growth trend in Sichuan Basin based on multi-cycle model [J]. Natural Gas Exploration and Development, 2021, 44 (01): 30-37.
[7]	Chu Xianliang, Cui Tengfei, Xiang Tao, Li Yifan. Grey and time series model prediction [J]. Surveying, Mapping and Spatial Geographic Information, 2019, 42 (08): 199-202. (in Chinese).
[8]	Li Ming Quan. Epidemic Characteristics and Prevention and Control Implications of COVID-19 in China [J]. European Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2021, 9 (4).
[9]	Li Ming Quan. Prevention and Control Effects of Different Prevention and Control Mechanisms on the Epidemic of COVID-19. European Journal of Preventive Medicine. Vol. 10, No. 6, 2022, pp. 110-114. doi: 10.11648/j.ejpm.2022.10.06.11
[10]	Zhao X F. (2011). Overview of grey system theory. Journal of Jilin Provincial Institute of Education (03), 152-154.
[11]	PANG D Y. Trend Prediction of Transboundary Water Pollution Based on Grey Modeling [J]. Western Leather, 2019, 41 (08): 69-71. (in Chinese).
[12]	Jia L Y. Grey increment model of population prediction and its application. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2006.
[13]	PENG Xiaoxiao. Research on Prediction and Pre-Control Countermeasures of Construction Safety Accidents [D]. Ocean University of China, 2012.
[14]	Zhai Xidong. Research on Prediction Model of Port Container Throughput [D]. Dalian University of Technology, 2006.
[15]	Sun Jing. Research on Product Modeling Design Method Based on Image [D]. Wuhan University of Technology, 2007.
[16]	Ma Le. Research on Grey Theory Modeling Method [D]. Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, 2005.

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Li Ming Quan. (2023). Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases. European Journal of Preventive Medicine, 11(1), 11-15. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13

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ACS Style

Li Ming Quan. Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases. Eur. J. Prev. Med. 2023, 11(1), 11-15. doi: 10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13

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AMA Style

Li Ming Quan. Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases. Eur J Prev Med. 2023;11(1):11-15. doi: 10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13,
  author = {Li Ming Quan},
  title = {Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases},
  journal = {European Journal of Preventive Medicine},
  volume = {11},
  number = {1},
  pages = {11-15},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ejpm.20231101.13},
  abstract = {Grey theory is a kind of grey system theory founded by Professor Deng Jurong, a Chinese scholar in the eighties century. It is a new method to study the uncertainty problem with few data and poor information. In recent years, grey modeling forecasting method has been widely used in industry, agriculture, science and technology, economic and social development planning and analysis, hydrology, geology, breeding and natural disaster prediction and so on. The prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases is an important work in the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Therefore, the author of this paper studied the application of grey modeling theory in the prediction and prediction of epidemic trend. Objective: To introduce the grey modeling prediction theory into the prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases, and to provide a new prediction method of epidemic trend of infectious diseases. The methods are as follows: The GM(1.1) model was established with the grey system theory, and the grey modeling was carried out on the short and medium term confirmed cases and the wave time of the epidemic outbreak in China in 2021, and the simulation accuracy and precision were analyzed. Results: The average simulation accuracy of the established short-term prediction model reached 73.2% and the prediction accuracy reached 99.85%. The average accuracy of the simulation value of the model reached 97.67% and the prediction accuracy reached 97.33% for the time of wave occurrence in the epidemic. This paper also analyzes the reasons for the low simulation value and prediction accuracy of the grey model forecasting method for the medium and long term confirmed cases of the epidemic.},
 year = {2023}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases
AU  - Li Ming Quan
Y1  - 2023/03/09
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13
T2  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
JF  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
JO  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
SP  - 11
EP  - 15
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-8230
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13
AB  - Grey theory is a kind of grey system theory founded by Professor Deng Jurong, a Chinese scholar in the eighties century. It is a new method to study the uncertainty problem with few data and poor information. In recent years, grey modeling forecasting method has been widely used in industry, agriculture, science and technology, economic and social development planning and analysis, hydrology, geology, breeding and natural disaster prediction and so on. The prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases is an important work in the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Therefore, the author of this paper studied the application of grey modeling theory in the prediction and prediction of epidemic trend. Objective: To introduce the grey modeling prediction theory into the prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases, and to provide a new prediction method of epidemic trend of infectious diseases. The methods are as follows: The GM(1.1) model was established with the grey system theory, and the grey modeling was carried out on the short and medium term confirmed cases and the wave time of the epidemic outbreak in China in 2021, and the simulation accuracy and precision were analyzed. Results: The average simulation accuracy of the established short-term prediction model reached 73.2% and the prediction accuracy reached 99.85%. The average accuracy of the simulation value of the model reached 97.67% and the prediction accuracy reached 97.33% for the time of wave occurrence in the epidemic. This paper also analyzes the reasons for the low simulation value and prediction accuracy of the grey model forecasting method for the medium and long term confirmed cases of the epidemic.
VL  - 11
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Author Information

Li Ming Quan

Nanchong City Committee Office of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Nanchong, China

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Li Ming Quan. (2023). Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases. European Journal of Preventive Medicine, 11(1), 11-15. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13

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ACS Style

Li Ming Quan. Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases. Eur. J. Prev. Med. 2023, 11(1), 11-15. doi: 10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13

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AMA Style

Li Ming Quan. Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases. Eur J Prev Med. 2023;11(1):11-15. doi: 10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13,
  author = {Li Ming Quan},
  title = {Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases},
  journal = {European Journal of Preventive Medicine},
  volume = {11},
  number = {1},
  pages = {11-15},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ejpm.20231101.13},
  abstract = {Grey theory is a kind of grey system theory founded by Professor Deng Jurong, a Chinese scholar in the eighties century. It is a new method to study the uncertainty problem with few data and poor information. In recent years, grey modeling forecasting method has been widely used in industry, agriculture, science and technology, economic and social development planning and analysis, hydrology, geology, breeding and natural disaster prediction and so on. The prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases is an important work in the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Therefore, the author of this paper studied the application of grey modeling theory in the prediction and prediction of epidemic trend. Objective: To introduce the grey modeling prediction theory into the prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases, and to provide a new prediction method of epidemic trend of infectious diseases. The methods are as follows: The GM(1.1) model was established with the grey system theory, and the grey modeling was carried out on the short and medium term confirmed cases and the wave time of the epidemic outbreak in China in 2021, and the simulation accuracy and precision were analyzed. Results: The average simulation accuracy of the established short-term prediction model reached 73.2% and the prediction accuracy reached 99.85%. The average accuracy of the simulation value of the model reached 97.67% and the prediction accuracy reached 97.33% for the time of wave occurrence in the epidemic. This paper also analyzes the reasons for the low simulation value and prediction accuracy of the grey model forecasting method for the medium and long term confirmed cases of the epidemic.},
 year = {2023}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases
AU  - Li Ming Quan
Y1  - 2023/03/09
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13
T2  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
JF  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
JO  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
SP  - 11
EP  - 15
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-8230
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20231101.13
AB  - Grey theory is a kind of grey system theory founded by Professor Deng Jurong, a Chinese scholar in the eighties century. It is a new method to study the uncertainty problem with few data and poor information. In recent years, grey modeling forecasting method has been widely used in industry, agriculture, science and technology, economic and social development planning and analysis, hydrology, geology, breeding and natural disaster prediction and so on. The prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases is an important work in the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Therefore, the author of this paper studied the application of grey modeling theory in the prediction and prediction of epidemic trend. Objective: To introduce the grey modeling prediction theory into the prediction of epidemic trend of infectious diseases, and to provide a new prediction method of epidemic trend of infectious diseases. The methods are as follows: The GM(1.1) model was established with the grey system theory, and the grey modeling was carried out on the short and medium term confirmed cases and the wave time of the epidemic outbreak in China in 2021, and the simulation accuracy and precision were analyzed. Results: The average simulation accuracy of the established short-term prediction model reached 73.2% and the prediction accuracy reached 99.85%. The average accuracy of the simulation value of the model reached 97.67% and the prediction accuracy reached 97.33% for the time of wave occurrence in the epidemic. This paper also analyzes the reasons for the low simulation value and prediction accuracy of the grey model forecasting method for the medium and long term confirmed cases of the epidemic.
VL  - 11
IS  - 1
ER  -

Copy | Download